A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
